Dogecoin price prediction – can be a determinism supposed?
Predikcia vývoja ceny Dogecoinu – je možné predpokladať determinizmus?
Ekonomika a spoločnosť, Volume 22, Number 2/2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24040/eas.2021.22.2.67-81
Odporúčaná forma citácie článku:
Medzihorský, J. (2021). Predikcia vývoja ceny Dogecoinu – je možné predpokladať determinizmus? Ekonomika a spoločnosť, 22 (2), 67-81. doi: https://doi.org/10.24040/eas.2021.22.2.67-81
Recommended form for quotation of the article:
Medzihorský, J. (2021). Dogecoin price prediction – can be a determinism supposed? Journal of Economics and Social Research, 22 (2), 67-81. doi: https://doi.org/10.24040/eas.2021.22.2.67-81
ABSTRACT
Pump-and-dump schemes are a phenomenon of many cryptocurrencies, including Dogecoin. We have identified repeating shapes on the graph of its price. It is obvious that the price development during last period replicates the development from the previous period. The aim of the article is to create a predictive model based on these replications. Using linear regression, we have developed the model with 87% accuracy on 3-month test set. Therefore, we claim that Dogecoin price development shows a significant degree of determinism. Our model also predicted the significant recent short-term rise (on 28 October 2021), despite the fact it was caused by Elon Musk’s tweet. We have shown that timing of this rise corresponds to the timing of another (also related to Elon Musk’s tweet) during a previous period. Thanks to the determinism in price development, we can predict the beginning of the next large Dogecoin pump most probably on 27 November 2021. This pump should be supported by Elon Musk’s tweet, as well.
Key words: Dogecoin. Price prediction. Pump-and-dump scheme. Time series analysis.